REPLAY CASE · GEOPOLITICS · RESOLVED OCTOBER 20, 2022

Liz Truss vs. the Lettuce

Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on September 6, 2022. On September 23, her Chancellor announced £45 billion in unfunded tax cuts. By the next Monday, the pound had crashed against the dollar, the Bank of England had launched an emergency gilt-buying operation to prevent pension fund collapses, and a tabloid had started livestreaming a lettuce, betting it would outlast her. The lettuce won. Truss resigned on October 20 after 44 days in office — the shortest premiership in British history. The Polymarket market on 'Will Liz Truss leave office by November 1?' opened September 23 at 8% and resolved YES three weeks later. This case is what fiscal credibility looks like when it breaks suddenly, and how political markets price a government in continuous freefall.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

"Political markets in parliamentary systems can move on questions that don't have a single decision-day. The information is distributed — backbench rumblings, bond-market moves, polling collapses. Reading the cumulative weight is the skill."

· You'll watch the market process information in real time from September 23, 2022 through October 20, 2022
· You'll trade with $100 in simulated USDC. No real funds move at any point.
· After the replay ends, you'll see a debrief: what your decisions would have returned, where you anticipated the move, where you chased.

Start Replay →← Back to library ↯ Did you predict this at the time?↯ What was the news saying at the time?INTERMEDIATE · ~80MIN AT 8×

CONTEXT

What was knowable at the time.

What broke on September 23

· Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a "mini-budget" containing the largest tax cuts in 50 years — funded entirely by borrowing.
· The Office for Budget Responsibility had been bypassed; no independent forecast accompanied the announcement.
· Sterling fell from 1.12 to 1.04 against the dollar within three trading days. UK gilt yields spiked the most on record.

What happened next

· September 28: The Bank of England began emergency long-dated gilt purchases to stabilize pension funds facing margin calls from LDI strategies.
· October 3: Truss reversed the 45p tax cut. Polymarket "Truss out by Nov 1": 22%.
· October 14: Kwarteng sacked. Jeremy Hunt installed as Chancellor and reverses essentially the entire mini-budget. Polymarket: 64%.
· October 19: Suella Braverman resigns as Home Secretary with a scathing letter; Conservative voting chaos in the Commons.
· October 20: Truss resigns. 44 days.

ARCHIVE · 8 EVENTS

Headlines you'll see during the replay.

Each headline appears in the news feed at its original timestamp as the replay progresses. Major events get a violet left-border. This is the primary source archive: real headlines from real moments.

Sep 23, 11:00 AM UTC · HM Treasury

Chancellor Kwarteng announces £45B unfunded tax cuts

The mini-budget. Gilt yields spike immediately; sterling falls.

Sep 26, 08:00 AM UTC · Reuters

Sterling hits all-time low against the dollar at $1.0327

Sep 28, 11:00 AM UTC · Bank of England

BoE launches emergency long-gilt buying to prevent pension collapse

First time a central bank had to intervene against its own government's fiscal policy in a generation.

Oct 03, 08:00 AM UTC · BBC

Truss reverses 45p tax cut — first major U-turn

Oct 14, 03:00 PM UTC · BBC

Kwarteng sacked. Jeremy Hunt named Chancellor

Polymarket: 64% Truss out by Nov 1.

Oct 17, 11:00 AM UTC · HM Treasury

Hunt reverses 'almost all' of mini-budget

By this point Truss's stated policy was no longer her own.

Oct 19, 07:00 PM UTC · BBC

Home Secretary Braverman resigns with scathing letter

Oct 20, 11:30 AM UTC · Downing Street

Liz Truss resigns as Prime Minister — 44 days

Shortest premiership in British history. The lettuce, livestreamed by the Daily Star, won.

Replay sessions use simulated funds against historical Polymarket price data. No real USDC moves at any point during a replay. Your simulated calibration is a training tool, not a promise of how you'll do with real money.