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007 / IX · Conviction pools · Live

Match on conviction, not on identity.

Answer 25 probability questions. We compute your epistemic fingerprint and match it to the pools whose worldview aligns with yours.

25 questions·Cosine match·Non-custodial
How it works
I · The survey
25
questions

Probability sliders across AI, macro, crypto, geopolitics, culture. Your answers stay private. Only your match score surfaces.

II · The match
73%
alignment

Cosine similarity against every pool's conviction vector. Enough overlap to be interesting, not enough to be uniform.

III · The pool
$0
pooled

Capital stays in your Polymarket Safe. Each wallet signs its own trade. Pools coordinates conviction, never money.

Starter pools

Pools forming now.

See all pools →
3 membersseed

The Tech Capitulation Pool

This Pool was founded on the conviction that current AI valuations — embedded in the market caps of companies…

$2,000
backed
Get matched →
3 membersseed

The 2027 Recession Pool

This Pool was founded on the conviction that a U.S. recession — formally declared by the NBER — will begin bef…

$1,500
backed
Get matched →
3 membersseed

The Crypto Adoption Pool

This Pool was founded on the conviction that we are in the early innings of institutional cryptocurrency adopt…

$1,500
backed
Get matched →
Seed member disclosure

Some starter pools include Augury seed members. These are editorial positions that disclose honest uncertainty, not false social proof. Seed members are always labeled.

Read before joining

A coordination tool, not investment advice. Augury does not custody funds, aggregate wallets, or execute trades on your behalf. Your capital never leaves your Polymarket Safe.