Your track record was always public. Now it's proven.
The world's first verifiable forecaster identity. Every Polymarket position you've taken, scored against what actually happened, and signed.
Brier is the squared error between what you said the probability was and what actually happened. It punishes being confidently wrong, and you can't game it without actually being right.
The most calibrated forecasters
Predictions that just aged well
Once markets in the Augury suite start settling, the boldest correct calls surface here.
How calibration is computed
A single number
The squared error between your stated probability and the real outcome, averaged across every resolved position.
The standard
Used by the Good Judgment Project, pro forecasters, and weather services. No way to game it without being right.
Continuously
Each order records the market's implied probability at that moment. When the market resolves we score it and update nightly, both overall and by category.
Your calibration record, matched to people who think like you.
Pools uses your Brier score and worldview to find pools whose conviction lines up with yours. It's non-custodial, so your money stays in your own Polymarket Safe.