Augury
About Augury·The read-side of prediction markets

The world has priced
the future for years.
We read it back.

On Polymarket, hundreds of thousands of people stake real money on what happens next. The price that emerges is the most honest probability estimate in the world. Augury is nine tools for reading that signal. Whether you trade or not.

New here? Start with one number
Will the Fed cut rates in June?
38¢=38%

A share that pays $1 if the answer is yes is selling for 38 cents. So the crowd, with real money on the line, thinks it is 38% likely. That is the whole idea: a price is a probability.

More honest than a pollUpdates every secondProvably right or wrong

A market that trades in maybe.

A prediction market lets people buy and sell shares in a future event: an election, a rate decision, a war ending, an AI milestone. Shares settle at $1 if it happens and $0 if it does not.

Because buyers risk their own money, the price keeps drifting toward the true odds. No spin, no punditry, just the collective best guess of everyone paying attention. When the event resolves, the price is checked against reality. It was right, or it was wrong.

Most people treat all of this as a place to trade. We saw the largest honest record of what the world expects, sitting almost entirely unread.

The whole thesis · three ideas
I

Real money, real beliefs

People stake real money on everything happening in the world: elections, rate decisions, AI milestones, wars. The price is what everyone collectively expects to happen.

II

A price is a probability

38¢ on a market means 38% likely, in the judgment of everyone with money on the line. More honest than polls. Verifiably right or wrong once it resolves.

III

Nine ways to read it

That signal is already inside your news feed, your calendar, your published opinions, your fears, and the people who think like you. Nobody built tools to surface it. We built nine.

Relationship to Polymarket

Polymarket is the substrate.

Polymarket runs the order book, the contracts, the oracle, and the settlement. Every position you place through Augury goes straight to Polymarket. Your USDC stays in your own Polymarket wallet. We run the read-side: the cartography, the personal risk layer, the journalism annotation, the practice simulator, the reputation graph. We do not compete with Polymarket. We extend what it can mean.

Who it is for

Whether you trade or not.

Traders, yes. Also journalists who want to know what the market prices a claim at. Researchers studying collective forecasting. Analysts prepping for a Fed meeting. Writers checking whether their stated beliefs hold up. Curious people who want a better signal than punditry. The same Polymarket wallet works for all of them, and so do all nine apps.

I

One sign-in, shared identity

Your Polymarket wallet connects once and works across all nine apps. Your Receipts score feeds Disagree's sizing. Your Atlas searches flow into Cal. The suite compounds.

II

One reputation graph

Everything you do builds a single, verifiable forecaster profile. A trade through Hedge becomes a prediction in Receipts. A claim backed in Disagree joins your track record.

III

One builder code

Every position routed through any app carries the same Augury builder code. One identity, nine surfaces, each serving a different reason to read the future.

An interface for the future, as if the future were a book.

Built upon

Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market

Scope

Nine standalone apps, one shared identity

Entry

Your existing Polymarket wallet. No new account.