What are you worried about?
Describe a real-world fear in plain English. We build a Polymarket portfolio that pays out if it happens. You pay a small premium once, and that's it: the insurance desk prediction markets made possible.
Not sure what to type? Start here.
Your first $50 hedge (a learning test)
Built for newcomers. A small $50 policy that hedges a tiny slice of Bitcoin exposure — enough to see how everything works end-to-end without putting any real weight at risk. You'll watch the policy get issued, see it on your dashboard, and learn the mechanic. If the trigger fires, you get ~$60 back. If not, you've spent $50 on a learning round and know how Hedge actually works.
Build mine →Mortgage rate hedge
Protect against rates rising before your refinance window. If rates are above your threshold on the FOMC announcement, this policy pays the additional interest you'd otherwise owe.
Build mine →Recession job-loss hedge
Protect against income loss during an NBER-declared recession. The policy covers a fraction of your annual income if the recession is officially called by year-end.
Build mine →Crypto crash hedge
Protect against Bitcoin falling below your threshold by year-end. Useful if a meaningful share of your net worth is in crypto.
Build mine →Inflation hedge
Protect against sustained inflation above 4%. If headline CPI stays above your threshold for two consecutive prints, this policy pays.
Build mine →Election outcome hedge
Protect against specific political outcomes that would materially affect your life — your immigration status, your industry, your home country's stability.
Build mine →Three steps. No jargon.
Tell us the worry
In plain English. A mortgage refi, a recession layoff, a crypto crash. We ask one or two quick follow-ups: how much is at stake, and by when.
We find the markets
AI scans every live Polymarket market for payouts that correlate with your worry. A second AI check verifies each match actually hedges what you said.
You get a policy
Premium up front, coverage if the trigger fires, scenarios laid out. Pay once in USDC. If your worry happens, it pays. If not, you've lost only the premium.
$50 in. $61 if you're right.
Each share is a contract that pays exactly $1 if a specific event happens, $0 if it doesn't. Back a view at $0.82/share with $50 and you hold ~61 shares, so $61 of potential payout. We never set the prices. The crowd does.
Have you written about the risks you're hedging?
Disagree finds your public quotes on recessions, elections, Fed moves or AI displacement, matches each to a market, and shows where you can back what you already said.
See how this style of hedge would have played out.
Replay walks resolved Polymarket markets hour by hour with simulated USDC. Building a hedge around a category? Replay the historical case first.
What is the news saying about the risks you're hedging?
Read finds prediction-shaped claims inside real journalism, then surfaces the live Polymarket price beside each one.
Worried about the same things as other people? Find them.
Pools matches you to people whose macro worldview aligns with yours: conviction positions, without pooling funds.
See when your hedge resolves, right on your calendar.
Cal overlays live market probabilities on your Google Calendar. The Fed meeting you hedged, the election you're covered for: all with live odds and a one-shot alert.
Augury Hedge constructs portfolios of Polymarket prediction-market positions on your behalf. These are not insurance policies. Augury is not a licensed insurer. Positions are settled by UMA's optimistic oracle and pay out only as the underlying markets resolve. You may lose your full premium. Markets may be illiquid at resolution. Augury earns a small fee on each position routed through its builder code.