The Climate Acceleration Pool

This Pool was founded on the conviction that climate-related market pricing — both in physical-risk assets and in policy prediction markets — is systematically underestimating the pace and severity of climate-driven change in the 2026-2030 window. Two distinct beliefs constitute this thesis. The first is physical. Global mean surface temperature is approaching and will likely breach the 1.8°C threshold relative to pre-industrial levels within the next two to three years. This is not a speculative political claim. It is the central estimate of the major climate modeling consortia, and the 2024 and 2025 data points are running ahead of those estimates. Markets in general have not fully priced the insurance, real estate, and agricultural implications of this trajectory. The second is political. The climate policy landscape is moving faster than U.S.-centric perspectives suggest. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is operational. Multiple G7 nations are implementing binding net-zero legislation with enforcement teeth. The U.S., despite legislative gridlock at the federal level, is seeing state-level carbon markets that are increasingly market-relevant. We believe the probability of meaningful federal climate pricing legislation in the U.S. before 2028 is underpriced by prediction markets. Together these two beliefs form a coherent worldview: the physical reality is accelerating, and the policy response — while lagged — will be forced to accelerate with it. Positions reflect both prongs: long on temperature threshold breaches, long on policy catalysts, short on the fiction that the status quo continues uninterrupted. This is not a political position. It is a forecast.