Real-money odds on the events the world is watching. No calendar connection required.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets June 16-17, 2026. Markets are pricing the probability of a 25bp cut against the backdrop of cooling inflation and a softening labor market.
Every Fed meeting is a probability event. This is the one your calendar already has. The question is whether the market's 32¢ implied cut matches yours.
Defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The NBER ultimately calls the timing. Markets are trading the probability in real time.
Recessions are the one macro event everyone is hedging against but nobody wants to call. The market currently has a view. Do you?
The September 16-17, 2026 FOMC is the third meeting of the year's second half. By then the full arc of 2026 data will be visible, and the market will have repriced several times.
Two FOMC meetings, two separate probability events. If June is a coin flip, September is the consequential bet on what June's decision implies about the rest of the cycle.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the advance Q2 2026 estimate in late July 2026. The 2% threshold is the conventional marker between soft-landing and stall.
GDP prints move rates, equities, and every other market. The advance estimate is always a revision, but the revision is what gets priced. This is a quarterly calendar anchor with a live probability annotation.
BTC has traded in a wide range this cycle. The $100K level remains a psychological threshold with significant options positioning on both sides.
The market has an opinion. The question is whether yours diverges from it, and by how much.
Post-merge ETH staking yields fluctuate with network activity and validator set size. The 5% APR line is a common institutional threshold for capital allocation decisions.
Staking yields are a calendar event you can pre-position. The market prices the probability; your calendar marks when the reading comes.
The long-cycle thesis: if BTC breaks $100K in late 2025 or early 2026, the $200K target becomes the next cycle high estimate. Stock-to-flow models and on-chain metrics disagree sharply on timing.
At 19¢ the market is pricing this as a real outcome, not a fringe one. The resolution date is on your calendar either way. The question is whether 19¢ is cheap.
Presidential approval is a persistent prediction-market category. Most polling aggregators have Trump's approval in the mid-to-high 40s, so the 50% threshold is a clear market line.
Approval ratings move markets. This is the quarterly probability check, on your calendar, with a live odds annotation.
The November 2026 midterm elections determine control of the House of Representatives. Historical patterns favor the out-party in off-year elections; current maps favor incumbents.
Midterms reset the legislative calendar. The market opens a year before polling day, and the price moves every time a district flips its lean.
The next scheduled UK general election is 2029, but snap elections under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act repeal are possible. Markets track government confidence votes and polling leads.
UK political calendars are unstable by design. The market prices something most analysts dismiss as remote, which is exactly when the price is interesting.
The EU AI Act passed in 2024 with a phased compliance timeline. The provisions governing high-risk AI systems are scheduled for enforcement in August 2026.
Regulatory timelines are themselves uncertain. This is a probability the market prices, and one that every AI-adjacent company is watching.
GPT-4 launched in March 2023. Successive model releases have accelerated. The market trades on OpenAI's stated roadmap against actual release velocity.
AI release dates are the new product launch probability event. Your calendar marks Q2 2026; the market marks the odds it happens by then.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks employment by sector. Markets price whether official data will confirm the displacement narrative that dominates the discourse.
The AI displacement thesis has been priced into narrative for two years. This market asks whether 2026 is when it shows up in the official numbers. At 31¢ the market says: probably not yet.
The 2026 World Cup is hosted across the US, Canada, and Mexico, the first 48-team tournament. Brazil enters among the pre-tournament favorites.
One calendar event. Dozens of probability markets. The tournament is on your calendar; the odds are on Polymarket.
The Celtics are the defending champions entering the 2025-26 season. Repeat champions are rare but the franchise has maintained roster continuity and cap flexibility.
Championship markets open at the start of the season and close in June. At 22¢ the market respects the Celtics but prices in the field's competitiveness across a full playoff bracket.
Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 2026 in New Orleans. The Chiefs have won four Super Bowls in six years. Markets open on roster construction and early-season performance.
The Chiefs are the market's perennial overreaction test. Are 28¢ odds efficient given a dynasty, or is that dynasty priced in from two seasons of watching them do it again?
The war in Ukraine has persisted since February 2022. Ceasefire markets have been active on Polymarket throughout, tracking diplomacy signals, territorial positions, and political changes in Washington.
Ceasefire probability is the most consequential calendar event in the European macro landscape. At 41¢ the market says it's coin-flip odds, and the price moves with every statement from Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington.
Defined as an event that triggers official DEFCON-level US military alerts or direct physical confrontation between PLAN and US/ROC forces. Excludes routine PLA exercises.
At 8¢ the market prices this as a tail risk, not a base case. But tail risks are exactly what calendar monitoring is for, so this is the annual recalibration checkpoint.
The JCPOA collapsed in 2018. Negotiations have restarted and stalled multiple times since. Markets track whether a formal agreement, not just talks, gets signed.
Nuclear deal probability is the oil market's shadow variable. At 17¢ the market says diplomacy is more likely than most analysts admit, but still improbable inside the year.
The G20 has discussed carbon pricing frameworks at multiple summits. A coordinated mechanism, not just pledges, requires domestic legislative backing from multiple members simultaneously.
This is the sleeper probability event in climate policy. At 9¢ the market says it's unlikely inside the year, but if it happens, it reprices every energy asset on the planet.