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← Atlas· WIRE

LIVE· real Polymarket data · synced 0s ago

Live Polymarket markets, with a one-sentence reason whenever the crowd's odds look off.

Each row is one real Polymarket market. The crowd's "YES" odds are the price column. The crowd gets most markets about right. But on some, Atlas spots a concrete reason the price might be wrong. Pick a flagged row whose reason feels real to you, then back $1 on the side you think the crowd is missing.

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The four checks Atlas runs on every market▾

Is the deadline far away? A market saying "X is 92% likely" is more questionable when X is a year off than next week.
Is money rushing in? When volume spikes, the price is repricing, which means something is changing now.
Do related markets agree? If "GOP wins House" and "GOP wins Senate" imply different odds, one of them is wrong.
Are our best users backing the opposite of the crowd? We track every user's accuracy. When the best are taking the other side, that's a flag.

8 markets·7 flagged·$435K pooled

ATLAS TRACK RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSAtlas is in early test phase. This strip lights up with a live hit rate once enough flagged markets resolve (typically 30+ days out).

Horizon

Cat

MarketCategoryCrowd YESResolvesLiquidityWhy lookTake a side

Other

>99%in 1mo

Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$1 NO pays back $2000

Money rushing in against a very confident crowd

Volume: 15.6× a normal day ($7,563 traded in 24h)

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Other

>99%

$1 NO → $2000

in 1mo

$9,710

Money rushing in against a very confident crowd

Volume: 15.6× a normal day ($7,563 traded in 24h)

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Sports

4%in 1.0yr

Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?

$1 YES pays back $26

Crowd is very confident on something far in the future

Resolves: 1.0 years from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Sports

4%

$1 YES → $26

in 1.0yr

$99,847

Crowd is very confident on something far in the future

Resolves: 1.0 years from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Sports

2%in 1.0yr

Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?

$1 YES pays back $41

Crowd is very confident on something far in the future

Resolves: 1.0 years from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Sports

2%

$1 YES → $41

in 1.0yr

$99,293

Crowd is very confident on something far in the future

Resolves: 1.0 years from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Sports

4%in 1.0yr

Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?

$1 YES pays back $27

Crowd is very confident on something far in the future

Resolves: 1.0 years from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Sports

4%

$1 YES → $27

in 1.0yr

$97,263

Crowd is very confident on something far in the future

Resolves: 1.0 years from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

AI · Tech

65%in 6mo

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

Resolves far in the future, so lots can change

Resolves: 6 months from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

AI · Tech

65%

in 6mo

$9,736

Resolves far in the future, so lots can change

Resolves: 6 months from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Politics

8%in 5mo

Will the National Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

$1 YES pays back $13

Crowd is very confident on something far in the future

Resolves: 5 months from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Will the National Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Politics

8%

$1 YES → $13

in 5mo

$9,888

Crowd is very confident on something far in the future

Resolves: 5 months from now, so anything can happen by then

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Macro

54%in 3mo

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Macro

54%

in 3mo

$99,191

no flag · crowd looks calibrated

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

Politics

89%in 1mo

SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans?

Crowd is very confident, and could be overconfident

Crowd at 89%. If you take NO, payback is 9.1×

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans?

Politics

89%

in 1mo

$9,766

Crowd is very confident, and could be overconfident

Crowd at 89%. If you take NO, payback is 9.1×

↯ Replay ↯ Written?◎ Pool ◷ Cal

That's the full wire. Anything we're missing? Feed an idea in to the discovery channel.

005 · READ · MARKET-NATIVE NEWS

See what analysts are writing about these markets, with the Polymarket price sitting right beside every prediction-shaped claim.

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