REPLAY CASE · SPORTS · RESOLVED DECEMBER 18, 2022

World Cup Final 2022: Argentina vs. France

By the 80th minute, Argentina led France 2-0 and the prediction market had Argentina at 97%. Then Kylian Mbappé scored. Ninety seconds later he scored again. The match was tied. The market that had been 97% Argentina was 51% by the end of regulation. Extra time produced a Messi goal, then a Mbappé hat-trick from the penalty spot. Penalty kicks resolved it. The Argentine win market closed the night at 100%. This is the cleanest fast-information replay in the suite — every goal is unambiguous, the price reaction is instant, and the lesson lands hard: a 97% market is not a sure thing. Three percent is three percent.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

"The difference between 97% and 100% is the entire reason markets exist. A market that prices a near-certainty still has tail risk. Reading whether to trade the tail is its own skill."

· You'll watch the market process information in real time during the hours of December 18, 2022
· You'll trade with $100 in simulated USDC. No real funds move at any point.
· After the replay ends, you'll see a debrief: what your decisions would have returned, where you anticipated the move, where you chased.

Start Replay →← Back to library ↯ Did you predict this at the time?↯ What was the news saying at the time?INTERMEDIATE · ~30MIN AT 8×

CONTEXT

What was knowable at the time.

Pre-match state

· Argentina had not won a World Cup in 36 years. Messi was 35, almost certainly his last cup.
· France were defending champions and were 1-3 favorites at most books.
· Polymarket's "Argentina wins World Cup" market sat at 52% at kickoff.

In-match flow

· 23': Di María wins penalty after a foul; Messi converts. 1-0 Argentina. Market: 71% ARG.
· 36': Di María scores after a beautiful build-up. 2-0 Argentina. Market: 91% ARG.
· 80': Mbappé converts penalty after handball. 2-1. Market: 78% ARG.
· 81': Mbappé scores a volley off the bar. 2-2. Market: 52% — coin flip.
· 108' (extra time): Messi puts Argentina back ahead. 3-2.
· 118': Mbappé hat-trick from another penalty. 3-3.
· Penalties: Argentina wins 4-2.

ARCHIVE · 9 EVENTS

Headlines you'll see during the replay.

Each headline appears in the news feed at its original timestamp as the replay progresses. Major events get a violet left-border. This is the primary source archive: real headlines from real moments.

Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · FIFA

Kickoff: Argentina vs France, Lusail Stadium

Dec 18, 03:23 PM UTC · Live match

Messi converts penalty: 1-0 Argentina

Market: 71% Argentina.

Dec 18, 03:36 PM UTC · Live match

Di María goal: 2-0 Argentina at half

Market: 91% Argentina. The cup felt decided.

Dec 18, 05:20 PM UTC · Live match

Mbappé penalty: 2-1 — France back in it

First real wobble. Market drops to 78%.

Dec 18, 05:22 PM UTC · Live match

Mbappé second goal in 90 seconds: 2-2

Market collapses 78% → 52% in ninety seconds. The game restarted at coin-flip.

Dec 18, 05:48 PM UTC · Live match

Full-time: 2-2, headed to extra time

Dec 18, 06:14 PM UTC · Live match

Messi extra-time goal: 3-2 Argentina

Market: 81%.

Dec 18, 06:24 PM UTC · Live match

Mbappé hat-trick (penalty): 3-3 — heading to PKs

The hat-trick. Market: 50/50 going into penalties.

Dec 18, 06:55 PM UTC · Live match

Argentina wins on penalties, 4-2 — Messi lifts the cup

Replay sessions use simulated funds against historical Polymarket price data. No real USDC moves at any point during a replay. Your simulated calibration is a training tool, not a promise of how you'll do with real money.