On the night of November 5, 2024, the market opened at 52% Trump. By 3 AM Eastern, it had moved to 95%. The night did not move in a straight line. There were three distinct repricings — the Florida call, the early Pennsylvania returns, and the AP's Wisconsin call near midnight — and the market processed each one differently. Some users bought ahead of the moves and rode the tape up. Most bought after the calls, when the information was already in the price. This case is the canonical test of a forecaster's discipline: do you anticipate, or do you chase? Both can be skills. The night will tell you which one you are.
"The market is a pricing mechanism, not a coin flip. The information enters the price as the news arrives. Buying after a major call usually means paying for what's already known."
Each headline appears in the news feed at its original timestamp as the replay progresses. Major events get a violet left-border. This is the primary source archive: real headlines from real moments.
Earlier than expected. Trump's margin was wider than 2020's. This was the first major repricing.
Philadelphia and the Philly suburbs hadn't started reporting yet. The lead was expected but read by the market as larger than priced.
By this point the market was at 89% Trump. The Wisconsin call was still hours away but the path was clear.
The market jumped from 91% to 97% in seconds. By this point, anyone buying YES was paying for the news, not anticipating it.
Replay sessions use simulated funds against historical Polymarket price data. No real USDC moves at any point during a replay. Your simulated calibration is a training tool, not a promise of how you'll do with real money.