REPLAY CASE · MACRO · RESOLVED MARCH 10, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank — Two Days in March

On Wednesday, March 8, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank announced a $1.75 billion stock offering to cover losses on its bond portfolio. The press release ran late in the afternoon. The next morning, depositors withdrew $42 billion in ten hours — a quarter of the bank's deposits. By Friday at noon, the FDIC had taken control. Three days from the press release to the second-largest bank failure in American history. The prediction market on 'Will SVB be in FDIC receivership by Sunday?' opened Thursday morning at 8% and closed Friday's session at 99%. This case is what a bank run looks like in 2023, when the run is digital, the depositors are coordinated on group chats, and the failure outpaces every traditional indicator. The lesson is the speed. Solvency questions used to take weeks. This one took thirty-six hours.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

"Bank runs in the modern era are faster than the institutions designed to stop them. By the time the news is everywhere, the run is already over."

· You'll watch the market process information in real time from March 8, 2023 through March 10, 2023
· You'll trade with $100 in simulated USDC. No real funds move at any point.
· After the replay ends, you'll see a debrief: what your decisions would have returned, where you anticipated the move, where you chased.

Start Replay →← Back to library ↯ Did you predict this at the time?↯ What was the news saying at the time?ADVANCED · ~60MIN AT 8×

CONTEXT

What was knowable at the time.

What was knowable Wednesday afternoon

· SVB held ~$200B in assets, heavily concentrated in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities bought during the zero-rate era.
· Rising rates had caused unrealized losses on the bond book to swell to ~$15B against ~$16B of tangible common equity.
· The 4 PM ET release announced a $21B sale of available-for-sale securities at a $1.8B realized loss, plus an emergency capital raise.
· Critically: SVB's deposit base was 90% uninsured (above the $250K FDIC limit) and concentrated in venture-capital-backed startups.

What was uncertain

· Whether the VC community would coordinate withdrawals or absorb the news as a one-day event.
· Whether a buyer would emerge over the weekend.
· Whether the Fed and Treasury would invoke systemic-risk exceptions.
· Polymarket's market sat at 8% Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon it was 45%.

ARCHIVE · 6 EVENTS

Headlines you'll see during the replay.

Each headline appears in the news feed at its original timestamp as the replay progresses. Major events get a violet left-border. This is the primary source archive: real headlines from real moments.

Mar 08, 09:00 PM UTC · SVB Financial

SVB announces $21B securities sale and $2.25B capital raise

The press release that started the run. Read like a routine balance-sheet repositioning to most. Read like alarm to a few.

Mar 09, 02:00 AM UTC · Twitter @founders

Founders Fund advises portfolio companies to pull deposits

The first prominent VC firm to publicly counsel withdrawal. Coordination cascade begins.

Mar 09, 02:00 PM UTC · CNBC

SVB shares down 60% pre-market on solvency concerns

Mar 09, 08:00 PM UTC · Bloomberg

$42 billion withdrawn from SVB in single day — bank insolvent at close

By the time markets closed Thursday, SVB had a negative cash balance of nearly $1B.

Mar 10, 03:30 PM UTC · CNBC

SVB trading halted pre-market

Mar 10, 06:00 PM UTC · FDIC

FDIC takes control of Silicon Valley Bank

Second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. The market resolved YES at 99.9%.

Replay sessions use simulated funds against historical Polymarket price data. No real USDC moves at any point during a replay. Your simulated calibration is a training tool, not a promise of how you'll do with real money.