REPLAY CASE · SPORTS · RESOLVED FEBRUARY 12, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII: Chiefs at 49ers, Overtime

Super Bowl LVIII was a study in real-time probability. The 49ers led by 10 with five minutes left in the third quarter. By the end of regulation, the score was tied. In overtime, Patrick Mahomes drove eighty yards for the winning touchdown. The Polymarket win-probability market moved through six distinct regimes that afternoon — opening favorable to San Francisco, neutral by halftime, KC-favorable in the third, SF-favorable late in the fourth, tied at overtime, then sharply KC. Each transition was an information event. This case teaches the discipline of fast-information markets: there are no slow burns here, only sharp updates as plays land. Sports replays are the cleanest training environment in Replay — the information is unambiguous, the price reaction is instant, and you find out quickly whether you read the game well or chased the action.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

"Sports markets are fast-update environments. The skill isn't anticipating outcomes — it's reading whether the latest information has been fully priced before you trade against it."

· You'll watch the market process information in real time from February 11, 2024 through February 12, 2024
· You'll trade with $100 in simulated USDC. No real funds move at any point.
· After the replay ends, you'll see a debrief: what your decisions would have returned, where you anticipated the move, where you chased.

Start Replay →← Back to library ↯ Did you predict this at the time?↯ What was the news saying at the time?BEGINNER · ~30MIN AT 8×

CONTEXT

What was knowable at the time.

Pre-game state

· Kansas City Chiefs were defending champions; San Francisco 49ers were on a 12-5 regular season.
· Vegas opened 49ers -2; line moved to KC -1 by kickoff.
· Polymarket's "Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?" market sat at 47% YES at kickoff.
· The 49ers won the toss and chose to receive, the conventional choice. (This would become controversial in OT.)

In-game flow

· 1Q-2Q: SF led 10-3, 10-10 by half. Market drifted KC-favorable on slow tempo.
· Q3: SF struck back with a 99-yard touchdown. Market: SF 64%, KC 36%.
· Q4: KC's defense forced two stops. Mahomes drove the field. Tied 19-19 at end of regulation.
· OT: New NFL rules — both teams get possession unless first drives a TD. SF kicked FG. Mahomes drove 75 yards for the winning TD.

ARCHIVE · 9 EVENTS

Headlines you'll see during the replay.

Each headline appears in the news feed at its original timestamp as the replay progresses. Major events get a violet left-border. This is the primary source archive: real headlines from real moments.

Feb 11, 11:30 PM UTC · ESPN

Kickoff: 49ers win toss, elect to receive

Feb 12, 12:25 AM UTC · Live game

49ers field goal: 3-0 SF, end of first quarter

Feb 12, 01:00 AM UTC · Live game

49ers Jauan Jennings 21-yard TD reception

10-3 SF. Market: KC 38%, SF 62%.

Feb 12, 01:35 AM UTC · Live game

KC kicks FG before half: 10-10

Halftime. Game knotted. Market: 50/50.

Feb 12, 02:10 AM UTC · Live game

49ers Christian McCaffrey 4-yard TD: 16-13 SF (Q3)

SF jumps to 67% on Polymarket. The night looked like SF's.

Feb 12, 02:35 AM UTC · Live game

Mecole Hardman TD reception, Chiefs back: 16-13 SF → 19-16 SF

Market pivots back to 50/50 with under 5 to play.

Feb 12, 02:55 AM UTC · Live game

Harrison Butker 57-yard FG ties it at 19-19

The longest field goal in Super Bowl history. Market briefly KC 56%.

Feb 12, 03:08 AM UTC · Live game

Overtime: 49ers settle for FG, KC takes possession needing TD

Feb 12, 03:24 AM UTC · Live game

Mecole Hardman walk-off TD reception — Chiefs win 25-22

Resolution moment. Market goes from 71% YES to 99.9% in seconds.

Replay sessions use simulated funds against historical Polymarket price data. No real USDC moves at any point during a replay. Your simulated calibration is a training tool, not a promise of how you'll do with real money.