REPLAY CASE · AI · TECH · RESOLVED NOVEMBER 22, 2023

The Five Days Sam Altman Was Fired

On Friday afternoon, November 17, 2023, OpenAI's board fired Sam Altman in a four-paragraph press release. By Sunday night, ninety percent of OpenAI's employees had signed a letter threatening to resign and follow Altman to Microsoft. By Wednesday morning, Altman was back at OpenAI with a new board. The Polymarket market on 'Will Sam Altman return as OpenAI CEO by year-end?' opened Friday afternoon at 18%, dropped to 8% on Saturday as he announced he was joining Microsoft, then climbed in a single hour Sunday night to 87% when the employee letter dropped. This case is what a corporate-governance crisis looks like in real time on a prediction market — the price moved not on official statements but on signals the market believed were the actual information.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

"When official statements and revealed preferences contradict, the market should follow the revealed preferences. Who signed what, where the talent went, who made the call — those mattered more than any press release that weekend."

· You'll watch the market process information in real time from November 17, 2023 through November 22, 2023
· You'll trade with $100 in simulated USDC. No real funds move at any point.
· After the replay ends, you'll see a debrief: what your decisions would have returned, where you anticipated the move, where you chased.

Start Replay →← Back to library ↯ Did you predict this at the time?↯ What was the news saying at the time?ADVANCED · ~80MIN AT 8×

CONTEXT

What was knowable at the time.

The official story

· Friday 12:28 PM PT: OpenAI board announces Altman fired. Statement says he was "not consistently candid" with the board.
· Greg Brockman, OpenAI president and co-founder, resigns within hours.
· Mira Murati installed as interim CEO.

The signals

· Saturday: Altman was in talks to return; he posted "i love the openai team so much".
· Sunday morning: Board doubles down. Brings in Emmett Shear (ex-Twitch CEO) as new interim.
· Sunday afternoon: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announces Altman and Brockman joining a "new advanced AI research team" at Microsoft.
· Sunday night, 11:48 PM PT: Letter signed by 505 of OpenAI's ~770 employees, threatening mass resignation. Included signatures from Ilya Sutskever — the board member who'd fired Altman — who publicly recanted.

What the market saw

· Polymarket opened the "Sam returns" market Friday night at 18%.
· Sunday afternoon, after Microsoft hire: 8%.
· Sunday 11:48 PM — letter drops: 23% → 71% in one hour.
· Monday: holds 75-82% all day.
· Tuesday late: Bloomberg reports the deal is essentially done. Market: 92%.
· Wednesday 1 AM PT: official announcement. Resolves YES.

ARCHIVE · 8 EVENTS

Headlines you'll see during the replay.

Each headline appears in the news feed at its original timestamp as the replay progresses. Major events get a violet left-border. This is the primary source archive: real headlines from real moments.

Nov 17, 08:28 PM UTC · OpenAI Blog

Sam Altman departs as CEO of OpenAI — 'not consistently candid'

The press release that opened the saga. Brutal and uninformative.

Nov 18, 03:00 AM UTC · The Information

Brockman resigns; multiple senior researchers expected to follow

First sign the firing wasn't going to be quiet.

Nov 18, 05:00 PM UTC · Twitter @sama

Altman: 'i love the openai team so much'

Nov 19, 06:00 PM UTC · Bloomberg

OpenAI board talks to bring Altman back collapse

Nov 20, 03:53 AM UTC · Twitter @satyanadella

Altman and Brockman joining Microsoft to lead new AI research team

Sunday morning bombshell. Polymarket: 8% return.

Nov 20, 05:00 AM UTC · OpenAI

Emmett Shear named interim CEO

Nov 20, 07:48 AM UTC · X / @karaswisher

Open letter: 505 of OpenAI's employees demand board resign or they will quit

Including Ilya Sutskever, the board member who fired Altman. Market: 23% → 71% in one hour.

Nov 22, 07:00 AM UTC · OpenAI

Altman returns as CEO with new board

Resolution. Five days, end-to-end.

Replay sessions use simulated funds against historical Polymarket price data. No real USDC moves at any point during a replay. Your simulated calibration is a training tool, not a promise of how you'll do with real money.