REPLAY CASE · AI · TECH · RESOLVED MARCH 14, 2023

GPT-4 — The Release

On March 14, 2023, OpenAI released GPT-4. For three weeks beforehand, a Polymarket market had been trading 'GPT-4 released by end of March' between 45% and 78% — wide bands for an event most of crypto Twitter considered already-priced. The release itself happened at 1 PM Pacific via a tweet, a 90-page technical report, a blog post, and a livestream — in that order. The market resolved YES within ninety seconds of the tweet. But the more interesting curve is the prior three weeks: every Sam Altman appearance, every leaked screenshot from Bing's GPT-4-powered Sydney, every 'sources say' Bloomberg story moved the price by 5-10 points. This case teaches a precise discipline — pricing tech releases where the company can ship on any given Tuesday and the entire market is reading tea leaves.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

"Tech-release markets are won by reading the company's signal cadence, not by gut-feeling on the product. Three Altman appearances in a week is a calendar, not a coincidence."

· You'll watch the market process information in real time from March 13, 2023 through March 14, 2023
· You'll trade with $100 in simulated USDC. No real funds move at any point.
· After the replay ends, you'll see a debrief: what your decisions would have returned, where you anticipated the move, where you chased.

Start Replay →← Back to library ↯ Did you predict this at the time?↯ What was the news saying at the time?BEGINNER · ~20MIN AT 8×

CONTEXT

What was knowable at the time.

What had been priced

· ChatGPT had launched on Nov 30, 2022 and crossed 100M users by January.
· Bing Chat (powered by GPT-4 internally, though unannounced) launched Feb 7 — the first real GPT-4 demos in the wild.
· The Microsoft AI summit at NEXT in early March had hinted at imminent capability lift.
· Polymarket "GPT-4 by March 31" had been 45-78% through February-March.

What was Tuesday-specific

· Sam Altman tweeted "next week" on Mar 9.
· OpenAI's engineering recruiting team announced "we just shipped something" internally on Mar 13.
· The market climbed 71% → 88% on the 13th alone.
· Pre-release Tuesdays at OpenAI had a pattern. Most users hadn't noticed.

ARCHIVE · 5 EVENTS

Headlines you'll see during the replay.

Each headline appears in the news feed at its original timestamp as the replay progresses. Major events get a violet left-border. This is the primary source archive: real headlines from real moments.

Mar 13, 04:00 PM UTC · Twitter @sama

Sam Altman: 'looking forward to tomorrow'

Market: 71% → 82% on the day of this tweet.

Mar 14, 05:00 PM UTC · Bloomberg

Sources: OpenAI to release GPT-4 today

Market: 88% → 96%.

Mar 14, 08:01 PM UTC · Twitter @OpenAI

We've created GPT-4, our most advanced system yet

1:01 PM PT. Market resolved YES within 90 seconds.

Mar 14, 08:05 PM UTC · OpenAI blog

GPT-4 technical report — 90 pages, capability benchmarks across exams and reasoning tasks

Mar 14, 09:00 PM UTC · YouTube

GPT-4 launch livestream begins

Greg Brockman's live demo. The shipping product confirmed the markets had been right to climb.

Replay sessions use simulated funds against historical Polymarket price data. No real USDC moves at any point during a replay. Your simulated calibration is a training tool, not a promise of how you'll do with real money.