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REPLAY CASE · MACRO · RESOLVED SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

The Fed's First Cut: 25 or 50?

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years. The cut itself had been priced in for months. The size of the cut had not. As of the morning of the meeting, Polymarket's market on 'Will the Fed cut 50 bps?' was bouncing between 55% and 65%. By the time Powell stepped to the podium at 2 PM ET, the number was 63%. The decision was 50. The market resolved YES in seconds, and the Fed's careful explanation of why — 'a recalibration, not an emergency' — moved every other market on the screen for the next forty minutes. This case is the canonical FOMC replay: the binary outcome is half the lesson. The other half is how the post-decision press conference repriced expectations for every future meeting in the year ahead.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

"Macro events resolve in two stages: the binary headline (cut or hold, 25 or 50) and the press conference that follows. The second stage often moves more dollars than the first."

  • · You'll watch the market process information in real time during the hours of September 18, 2024
  • · You'll trade with $100 in simulated USDC. No real funds move at any point.
  • · After the replay ends, you'll see a debrief: what your decisions would have returned, where you anticipated the move, where you chased.
Start Replay →← Back to library↯ Did you predict this at the time?↯ What was the news saying at the time?INTERMEDIATE · ~50MIN AT 8×
CONTEXT

What was knowable at the time.

What was priced going in

  • · The Fed's last hike had been July 2023. They'd held at 5.25-5.50% for over a year.
  • · August CPI came in at 2.5% YoY — the first sub-3% print since 2021.
  • · August unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, triggering the Sahm rule.
  • · The two-year Treasury yield had collapsed 50bp in August on growing rate-cut expectations.
  • · Fed Funds futures pricing on Tue afternoon: 65% chance of 50bp cut, 35% chance of 25bp.
  • · Polymarket's '50bp cut' market: 63% by 1 PM ET Wednesday.

What was uncertain

  • · Powell had been deliberately ambiguous in Jackson Hole — 'time has come for policy to adjust.' That was the *direction*, not the *size*.
  • · The dot plot would reveal where the median FOMC member saw rates by year-end.
  • · The labor-market deterioration was the wild card. A weaker print might have justified going bigger.
ARCHIVE · 6 EVENTS

Headlines you'll see during the replay.

Each headline appears in the news feed at its original timestamp as the replay progresses. Major events get a violet left-border. This is the primary source archive: real headlines from real moments.

Sep 18, 01:00 PM UTC · Bloomberg

Markets open: S&P futures flat, Fed Funds futures 65% on 50bp

Sep 18, 03:30 PM UTC · WSJ

Timiraos: 'Fed officials are weighing 25 vs 50 — this is the closest call in a decade'

Nick Timiraos's WSJ column was the Fed's whispered preview channel. This headline moved Polymarket from 58% to 65% in twelve minutes.

Sep 18, 06:00 PM UTC · Federal Reserve

FOMC decision: Federal Funds rate cut by 50bp to 4.75-5.00%

Resolution. The market jumped from 63% to 99.5% in two seconds. The dot plot showed two more 25bp cuts expected by year-end.

Sep 18, 06:30 PM UTC · Federal Reserve

Powell press conference begins

Sep 18, 06:35 PM UTC · Powell remarks

'This is a recalibration, not an emergency. The economy remains solid.'

The framing line of the entire afternoon. Equity markets had been up 1% on the headline; they gave it all back during the presser.

Sep 18, 07:00 PM UTC · Powell remarks

'We are not on any preset course' — Q&A on November meeting

Replay sessions use simulated funds against historical Polymarket price data. No real USDC moves at any point during a replay. Your simulated calibration is a training tool, not a promise of how you'll do with real money.