Six-Chart Sunday – 2026 Midterms Update

Here’s an update on the midterm elections with ~6 months remaining. Bottom lines up front:

Democrats’ midterm prospects are surging.

Republicans could still turn things around and have sufficient resources. But time is running out.

The GOP will need (1) a strong reversal of prevailing economic pessimism over affordability, (2) a feel-good wave of patriotic enthusiasm (via success in Iran / troops coming home / America’s 250th) and (3) “scorched-Earth” campaign ads that “paint Democrats as out-of-touch elites who want open borders, are soft on crime and are wrong on whatever the hot-button cultural issue of the moment becomes.” (NYT)

UPCOMING EVENT: Join us to discuss the midterms live on Wednesday (4/29) at 4pm ET with Cook Political Report editor-in-chief and publisher Amy Walter.

1. Democrats’ Odds Have Markedly Improved

Six months ago prediction markets gave Democrats a 58% change of capturing the House and 27% chance of winning the Senate. Today the quoted odds are 86% (House) & 50% (Senate). (Kalshi)

2. Presidential Approval — the Best Predictor of House — Is Currently Low

Midterm elections tend to be referendums on the sitting Administration, with the President’s job approval consistently correlating to his party’s outcome in the House. President Trump’s current job approval is 41% — below the 44% approval he enjoyed heading into the 2018 midterms (where the GOP lost 41 seats and control) and roughly the same as President Biden’s approval before the 2022 midterms (where Democrats lost control of the House though only 9 seats). While there are far fewer competitive seats in 2026 than in 1994, 2010 or 2018, Democrats only need to net +3 seats to regain control.

Virginians this week voted to amend the state’s constitution to massively gerrymander the state’s congressional districts, as other states have already done and Florida may next attempt.

“When combined with new lines that California voters endorsed in November, Democrats have now succeeded in drawing districts that will likely yield them nine more seats this fall, at least matching what Republicans have been able to achieve in states that they control. By some measures, Democrats have jumped into the redistricting lead, bolstering their chances of winning back the House majority in the midterm elections.

The battle is not over. The GOP-dominated Florida legislature will hold a special session next week to consider redistricting, and the Democratic victory in Virginia could help Governor Ron DeSantis win over lawmakers who are reluctant to press the Republican advantage too far. Officials in both parties expect the Supreme Court to issue a ruling in the coming months that will weaken if not eviscerate a key part of the Voting Rights Act, which would allow states such as Louisiana and Alabama to carve up districts now held by Black Democrats.” (Economist)

4. Democrats Are Polling Well in Senate Battlegrounds

“[Democrats] retaking the Senate would require flipping at least four Republican-held seats — including at least two seats in states that President Trump won by double digits in 2024. In today’s polarized era, Democrats would need everything to break their way.

So far, everything is breaking the Democrats’ way. With Mr. Trump’s approval rating falling and inflation rising, along with the uncertainty of a war in the Middle East, it’s not hard to imagine a Democratic tsunami in November. A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured to flip two reliably Republican states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.” (NYT)

Of course these polls are very early, reflecting broader dissatisfaction more than disapproval of individual candidates who have barely begun campaigning (or are in primary fights). Recall the GOP gained two senate seats in 2018 even as they lost 41 in the House, and in 2020 polling missed several of these states quite badly:

“Senator Susan Collins did not lead in a single publicly released poll during the final four months of her re-election campaign in Maine. But Ms. Collins, a Republican, won the election comfortably (+8.6%).

Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, trailed in almost every poll conducted in his race. He won, too.”

5. Republicans Retain Massive Fundraising Edge

“Individual Democratic candidates in key midterm races are doing much better financially than their Republican counterparts. But the party should not get too excited about having more cash.

That’s because the Republican Party’s main political committees and allied groups have built a staggering advantage of roughly $600 million over the Democratic ones. The Republican side has about $843.6 million stockpiled compared with just $243 million for Democrats, accounting for debts.” (NYT)

“The largest number of voters, 43%, cite economic issues such as inflation (26%) and the economy generally (17%) as the most important issues facing the country today. Other issues rank significantly lower, with around one in 10 naming political leadership/corruption (13%), the war with Iran (11%), political divisions within the country (9%), and immigration (8%) as the top concern. Aside from the Iran war, these priorities are mostly unchanged since last year.

When asked which political party would do a better job handling issues, the poll finds Republicans have the advantage on border security (+16 points), crime (+8), immigration (+8) and national security (+6). Democrats are favored on climate change (+29 points), healthcare (+21), abortion (+18), transgender issues (+13), inflation (+8 points) and foreign policy (+6). Neither party has a significant edge on handling the economy (D +4) or artificial intelligence (D +5),” though this is the first time Democrats have led on the economy since 2010. (Fox News)

Artificial intelligence is only effective if it’s trusted and believed. That may be easier with some demographics than others.