15 Bold NBA Predictions for 2026...

Members of the Substack NBA community have come together to give our crazy predictions for the new calendar year.

2026 has the potential to be a crazy year for the NBA. Stars could be on the move all over the place. Some teams are ready to blow it up, others are waiting to strike and jump into contention. Here are our boldest predictions for what the landscape of the league will look like in 12 months time…

Windy City Smackdown’s Predictions:(https://substack.com/@windycitysmackdown?)

A lot of this is dependent on the package the Knicks must give up acquiring Giannis, but as we have seen in recent years (KD to the Suns, Dame to the Bucks, Harden to Nets, Gobert to TWolves, PG to LA), gutting a roster’s depth and draft capital typically ends up detrimental to a franchise. The Knicks are currently 23-10 and firing on all cylinders. They have the deepest roster that we have seen in the past few seasons, and to acquire Giannis means giving away at least 2 of their starters plus most or all of their first-round draft capital. If KAT is in the deal, the Knicks lose substantial spacing and big man play, as an injury prone Mitchell Robinson becomes their primary big with Ariel Hukporti as a full-time backup. If OG is in the deal, they lose one of the best 3&D players in the game and a guy you can stick on any 1 through 4. If Mikal is in the deal, you lose the scoring punch and an iron man. If Hart is in the deal, you lose a stat sheet stuffing player who provides the heart and the dog. I lose quite a bit of trust in this roster assuming 2 of these 4 would have to be in the deal, especially with Giannis having growing injury concerns.

Admittedly, this one is part prayer and part prediction. But as I discussed in one of my recent articles, the injuries to Coby White and Josh Giddey have changed the course of the season for the Bulls. They have an opportunity to lose games without tanking and add to their asset pool for players they don’t view as part of their future. I expect most or all of Coby White, Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmu, and Kevin Huerter to be off the team by the deadline. They are currently projected over $100 million in 2026 cap space and can likely get into the top 8 of the draft over this stretch without their two lead guards. This current team has solid pieces but has clearly been built to maximize cap space or this upcoming offseason, as in recent deals they have acquired players who are on deals until this summer. They have the chance to build on their young core of Josh Giddey, Matas Buzelis, and Noa Essengue with a potential top 10 pick and over $100 million in open space that can be filled via free agency or trade.

I want to give Ryan Rollins some love for his breakout campaign this season. He was a second-round pick who got traded on draft night to the Golden State Warriors. He dealt with some off the court issues that cost him his spot on the Wizards in 2024 and the Bucks took a flyer on him. And boy has it paid off. He showed flashes last season, slashing 48.7/40.8/80 in just 14.6 minutes per game. He has been given the keys this year, and he has capitalized. On the year, he is averaging:

With Giannis (21 games): 16.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 49.0/45.3/82.6 splits

Without Giannis (14 games): 19.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 6.5 APG, 47.6/37.9/66.7 splits

Without Giannis, he will obviously see more opportunity, but his efficiency is still very good for not being able to play off a top 5 player in the world. The shots are going to become more difficult, but he has been a top option alongside Kevin Porter Jr. Going along with my other prediction of Giannis forcing out, I can’t help but feel that Rollins, who is still just 23, is seen as a key building block of the new era. If the trade does happen, I can see him averaging 22+ PPG post-deadline.

I think I’m in the minority here, but I like Trae Young as a player despite his defensive problems. He makes offenses out of nothing, creates space better than almost all guards his size, and is the player that every team loves to hate simply because he can do all of those things. Yet, I also recognize the fact that he is not a winning player for this Hawks team as currently constructed.

The Hawks are 15 points (!!!) worse on defense with him on the floor, per PBPStats, and they actually shoot better from three without him. Hence, the trade rumors surrounding him are warranted (especially given the lack of a contract extension), and I’m led to believe someone will bite if he’s truly on the market.

And then, once/if he gets traded, the Hawks will make the playoffs because he won’t be on the floor anymore. Jalen Johnson is a revelation, Nickeil Alexander-Walker will get even more looks to up his already-absurd third-option stats, and the team, as I write this, is less than 4 games back from a top-4 seed due to the flattened Eastern Conference. Book it.

Prediction #2: J.J. Redick and the Lakers part ways by June

I would’ve thought this prediction would be ridiculous just a few weeks ago. It’s still a hot take that I’m not sure I fully believe myself, but think about it for a moment. Redick genuinely looks like he’s pissed with this entire roster.

Luka simply isn’t giving the defensive effort he wants, LeBron at times is waning on that end of the floor (likely due to age), and Deandre Ayton is starting to show some of the signs of character immaturity that I was hoping wouldn’t appear since his arrival in LA. They’ll still make the playoffs – they’re too talented and have Luka Doncic – but an early flameout due to defensive flaws will cause J.J. not to be fired, but to possibly part ways in a mutual decision.

Hyper-specific? Yes! Am I being fooled by a tiny sample size by Jalen Green for the umpteenth time in his career? Also, probably yes! But I believe!

Jalen Green, prior to injuring his hamstring and being timetabled for some time this month, had a phenomenal first two games with the Suns. First, he scored 29 points on 46% 3P shooting, and did so while also finishing extremely well around the rim. He made the Clippers defense – which, I get it, it’s the Clippers – look garbage, dancing around the likes of James Harden and Kawhi Leonard to get pretty much any bucket he wanted. Then he got injured in the very next game, which is, uh, not ideal. But this is about bold predictions, and this is my boldest yet. Green has never averaged above 36% from deep on a season, but he’s also never played with another three-point shooter who can draw the defense away from him like Devin Booker. Nor has he ever been on a team in which the spacing was really good like the Suns. Other than that, this is a pure vibes play by me. I see the vision.

The defending champs are off to a historic start — 70 wins is still on the table for one of the league’s youngest teams, which has also been the best overall from start to finish. They’ve also lost to the Spurs three times, dropped one to Minnesota, and needed double OT to escape Houston on opening night. That’s the tell: even when OKC wins, the offense can get predictable. The return of 2025 All-NBA/All-Defensive selection Jalen Williams, hasn’t hit the way OKC hoped, and the simplest explanation is wrist surgery he had in the summer. If the Thunder want to turn “title contender” into “era,” they need a reliable second scorer who doesn’t lower their historic defensive ceiling, and a little more championship scar tissue wouldn’t hurt. Enter Giannis. Milwaukee has no reason to keep pretending the window is open. It’s over. That roster isn’t built to win a playoff round, let alone a title. OKC, meanwhile, has the league’s most ridiculous war chest: prospects (Nikola Topić, Ousmane Dieng) and an ocean of future firsts. There are expendable rotation pieces on the Thunder roster as well. From a basketball-fit standpoint, it’s almost too clean: Giannis punishes defenses in transition off OKC’s turnover creation. He gives Shai a true co-star who can take possessions over without hijacking the system. He stops bigs (Jokić, Wemby, Şengün, etc.) from roaming and ignoring an Isaiah Hartenstein, while guarding these same bigs on crunch time.Without Giannis, OKC has “dynasty potential.” With Giannis, it becomes close to inevitable.

Toronto has lived in that awkward middle: enough talent to compete, enough wins to avoid the real lottery, and not quite enough star power to scare the top teams. This year has been different — the Raptors have been one of the East’s biggest surprises, sitting 4th at the time of writing, and Scottie Barnes is the main reason why. Barnes was officially crowned the franchise guy when he signed a 5-year/$225M deal in 2024. That contract can jump to $270M if he makes All-NBA and/or All-Defense beginning in 2025–26. On the court, he’s backing it up: Career highs in FG%, 3PT%, FT% Career-best pace in rebounds, blocks, and tracking toward a career high in steals One scoring heater away from 20 PPG for the first time Functioning as Toronto’s primary playmaker / de facto point guard and best perimeter defender When Toronto wins, Scottie’s imprint is all over it. Games like the 25/25/10 against Golden State are going to become more normal from him as he continues to ascend in 2026. His impact will be handsomely rewarded when the time to vote arrives.

Let me be clear: in terms of upside, this might be the most talented roster in the league. Former lottery picks within the last decade in Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan. Championship/veteran pieces like Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet and Keldon Johnson. They’re well-coached, and they’ve already gotten a taste of pressure from their NBA Cup run. But the West is still the West, and playoff basketball is an exposure test. I don’t see them beating a battle-tested, hungry team like the Anthony Edwards–led Timberwolves, and I’m not picking them over Houston in a 7 game series either, nor a solved machine like Denver. Even if the seeding breaks right for them to have home court advantage, the “dangerous lower seed” pool is nasty: Golden State, the Lakers, the Clippers, even chaotic talent like Memphis or Portland can make a series miserable. The Spurs have benefited from the element of unfamiliarity. They catch teams off guard. In the playoffs, that advantage dies fast. Every weakness gets hunted. Every counter gets countered. That’s why the Cup Final collapse mattered to me: it showed where they still are mentally when the game flips from “we’re ahead of schedule” to “now you have to close.” If they land a top-four seed and end up hosting a Game 7, I’m not convinced they’re ready for 48 minutes of that kind of pressure, and that’s assuming they even get to a Game 7. Talent travels. But series wins require maturity, versatility, and adjustment-to-the-adjustment. In this West, I think San Antonio is still one year early.

So while this might seem shocking, the Jazz are better than their record implies and they can make things interesting in the West. I wouldn’t say they are ready to contend for a deep play-off run by any means, but they can be annoying enough for teams like Golden State, Memphis, and Portland. Their best player Lauri Markkanen has been involved in trade rumors but maybe the Jazz keep him past the trade deadline with the rest of the roster coming into its own this season. Keyonte George is playing like a future All-Star putting up about 25 points, 7 assists, and 4 rebounds per game. The Jazz have some good young talent to round out their roster with Isaiah Collier, Brice Sensabaugh, Ace Bailey, and Walter Clayton. In the month of December they stacked up a few impressive wins against the Rockets, Spurs, and my Pistons. I wouldn’t be surprised if they could string some more dubs together and shock the league with a play-in appearance.

Prediction 2: Cade Cunningham Wins MVP Cade Cunningham has elevated the Detroit Pistons to another level this season and the turnaround from two years ago has been nothing short of spectacular. They’ve improved from 14 wins in 2023-24 to 44 wins in 2024-25 making them the first team in NBA history to triple their win total from the previous season. Currently the Pistons are sitting at a record of 25-9 with Motor Cade dropping 26.5 points, 9.7 dimes, and 6.2 rebounds per game. Unlike some other stars, his impact carries over to the defensive end of the floor as well with 1.5 steals and 0.7 blocks per game. SGA, Luka, and Jokić have elite supporting casts while Cade has a carry job. Leading Detroit to the top of the East with half the help is more than enough for an MVP case. Duren looks great this year and Ivey is still working his way back, but it’s hard to tell who the team’s reliable second scorer is supposed to be. With Jokic set to miss time due to an injury, this could open up opportunities for other players to make a push for the award.

Even at their best, I don’t see the Cavs making it past the first round—if they even make the playoffs at all. They look solid on paper, but they’re prone to the same post-season flame outs we’ve seen before. Honestly, I could see Atlanta jumping ahead of them in the eastern standings soon. My biggest concern is the Garland/Mitchell pairing. At 6’1”, Garland is a defensive target in the playoffs, and I just don’t love that fit long term. If things go south like I’m predicting, Cleveland will likely move on from Garland try a different approach.

One of the players on everyone’s mind is Trae Young, and his end at the Atlanta Hawks is closer than we think, and it’ll be better to trade him so as to get some return from him, rather than allowing him to work for free in the summer of 2026 if he declines his player option and becomes an unrestricted free agent. The Hawks are a struggling team when Trae Young plays; they’re currently 2-8 in games which Trae Young has played in for the Hawks and are 14-11 in games which Trae hasn’t featured in for Atlanta. Jalen Johnson has been Atlanta’s best player by a mile this season and leads the team in points (24), assists (8.4), and rebounds (10.4) and has the highest field goal made in the team. That has also made him fourth in assist average and ninth in rebounds. This season Trae Young is not having the best numbers of his season; he has a +/- of -3.7 and his worst numbers in points, rebounds, assists and field goals made since 2020. Below are his stats in recent years from StatMuse.

Trae would be traded to a team like the Sacramento Kings, who are desperately looking for a point guard since they traded Fox to the San Antonio Spurs, or the Clippers, who are looking to get James Harden and Kawhi off their books when their contracts expire and could pair Trae and Zubac as a chance to rebuild their roster. Trae Young’s most memorable period came in the 2021 playoffs, where he famously led his team to the 2021 NBA Eastern Conference finals and was the top scorer in each game against the New York Knicks in the playoffs’ first round.

My last prediction is Giannis flaming up and requesting a trade from the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have done everything in their power to keep Giannis happy, including trading their depth and picks away just to keep their superstar happy. The Bucks are currently 14-20 this season and are the eleventh seed, also being 10-8 with Giannis and 3-11 without Giannis. The Bucks started the season 4-1, but due to injuries and poor form, they have sunk to the eleventh seed, especially when they went 4-13 between 16th November and 27th December and also included a seven-game losing streak. All this paints the bigger picture that Milwaukee does not have the squad to compete even if Giannis plays one of his basketball games. Giannis is currently averaging a double-double (29 points and 10 rebounds) and also 5.8 assists this season. He has also missed fourteen games so far this season, and he is getting tired of the Milwaukee front office. The organization are in a mess and do not have moveable assets, with their first-round pick coming up in 2031. The Bucks might be forced to trade Giannis, who has until the 2026/2027 season before he can opt out and be an unrestricted free agent. Giannis has won two MVPs, one DPOY (Defensive Player of the Year), an NBA Finals MVP and, most importantly, an NBA championship in the 2021 season when the Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns in the NBA Finals after coming back from a 2-0 deficit. Giannis has a winner’s mentality and has always reiterated his desire to win more championships, either in Milwaukee or outside Milwaukee.

Another thing I also see happening is the New York Knicks winning the Eastern Conference finals and reaching the NBA finals. Last season the New York Knicks reached the Eastern Conference finals, but they fell short to a Tyrese Haliburton-led Indiana Pacers in a 4-2 series. After the playoffs exit at the hands of the Indiana Pacers, the Knicks reacted by firing head coach Tom Thibodeau, who was seen by many as one of their most successful coaches in decades. The Knicks decided to go in a different direction by hiring Mike Brown, who previously coached the Sacramento Kings, helping them to snap their seventeen-year playoff drought and also winning coach of the year by doing so. Mike Brown has won four rings as an assistant coach with the likes of the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors. The Knicks have started the season well; they are currently the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and have gone 23-10 this season. The Knicks went 11-1 between 25 November and 19 December, which saw them win seven games in a row and claim the NBA Cup final on 17th December against the Spurs in a 124-113 win where Jalen Brunson and Anunoby were pivotal to their win with a combined total of 53 points and 11 dimes. The Eastern Conference has also been a lot less competitive over the years, with a lot of stars being traded to the west, like Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, James Harden and many more. What also makes it more is the injuries to star players like Tyrese Haliburton of the Pacers and Jason Tatum of the Boston Celtics, who will miss a huge chunk or almost their entire season. The trades of the Celtics and how inconsistent the Bucks have been have strengthened the Knicks’ case for going all the way to the finals.

It was only a few months ago that it felt like the Celtics’ championship window had closed for the foreseeable future. Tatum, who was having the game of his life, ruptured his Achilles tendon in Game 4 against the Knicks. What followed was a series of moves that led us to believe this season would be a “gap year.” Fast forward to New Year’s, and the Celtics sit 3rd, only behind the Pistons and the Knicks. This is largely due to Jaylen Brown, who has silenced every narrative surrounding his play. Assume that every stat mentioned here is a career high: he’s averaging 29.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5 assists on nearly 60% TS. Derrick White, who had a predictable slow start due to his increased role, is now averaging a career-high 18 points while still being a pest on defense. Payton Pritchard, who made a living running the second unit, has found his place as a starter. And despite losing key pieces over the summer, younger players such as Jordan Walsh and Neemias Queta have developed into quality rotation players. Combined with the players already at their disposal, the Celtics now possess the highest scoring bench in the NBA. (Celtics bench averages 36.4 points per game.)

All this is happening without their superstar, Jayson Tatum, who is still recovering. However, due to advancements in medical treatment and KD’s comeback providing a blueprint for recovery, and the possibility of Tatum returning to his former self, now seems plausible. And whether he returns or not (with no expected date for his comeback), the fact remains that no team in the East has the experience or firepower that the Celtics do, leading me to believe that the Celtics will represent the east for the 3rd time this decade.